Laissez les bons temps rouler!

Loosely translated, it means let the good times roll, and as this is Fat Tuesday (Mardi Gras) and the day before Lent starts (on the Christian calendar), I thought I would take a moment to look at the "good times" and make sure we are in the right frame of mind for Lent this year.

The "good times" have been limited to a very few things. Give me a minute and I will come up with something. In the meantime, let us revisit what has already been a turbulent 2008.

1) $3 Trillion Federal Budget. Well, this horse will beaten dead in the next few days but Congress is already saying it is DOA and they are already working up their version.

2) $150 Billion Stimulus package. By the time it gets finished, it will probably be close to $200 Billion. And the jury is still out on the actual effect it will have on the economy going forward. Even if the Congress passes it today, it will still be May before the $300 hits your mailbox and by May there will be other things to contend with (I am thinking that $3/gallon gas will be normal and we could be looking at $3.50 as the average). Further, if the Government gives back $150 Billion, that is $150 billion they don't have to spend on other programs that could do more to benefit the economy than returning money to individual people.

3) Credit Crunch. I am sure we are all feeling it, whether in mortgage prices or our own personal credit lines. America has been living on credit for so long, we have forgotten why it is bad to live that way. While one comedian has a great line about it "I have no children, no family, so basically, if I die in debt, I win!" most of us are not that lucky and between credit card interest rates that are close to usury and the continued depression in real wages when compared against inflation, the United States is in a bad way. Add too that the problems of an increasing federal deficit (at the rate of $1 Million/day) and you have a monetary problem looming on the horizon that even hording gold might not off-set.

4) The Ongoing Wars. The United States still has far too many soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan doing who knows what. The mission, which is costing somewhere in the vicinity of $275 Million per day and costing lives. Although the actual number killed in action is low (around 4,000, or about the same as a single month of fatal accidents, the long term costs are going to be in the medical and mental services required by the thousands of soldiers who will come back from these war zones and will have to reintegrate into society. Some will have no problem. Many will have (and are already having) problems. Of course, the costs of the war do not take into account small businesses that have failed because their sole proprietor or large parts of their staffs have been called up to serve, or families that have been ripped apart as one or both parents have had to go or return to the region. What is truly sad is that the dunderhead-in-chief of this mess still has not clearly defined the mission. They are not fighting for our rights. They are not fighting terrorism. In the first case, we have fewer rights here in the United States today than we did before September 11, 2001 and what is worse, we have given most of them up willingly and without any sort of a fight. In the latter case, you cannot kill an -ism and, in the case of terrorism, it is a guerrilla war which you would think by now the United States would have learned you cannot win with a conventional ground force.

5) Homeland (In)security. The travel industry is suffering. Between high fuel costs, increased delays and draconian yet ineffective security, air travel is suffering. Sure, people are traveling, but the discretionary money that might actually lead to profits are not there. Add to that the pressures of issuing a national ID card (RealID is nothing less), the costs that states will have to bear and the increased times for processing passports just so you can travel domestically and you will see a large number of people find some other mode or stay home all together.

6) Its the Economy Stupid. It does not take a rocket scientist to see the problems in the economy. Travel is one of them. Along with hotels, attractions are all reporting decreases in bodies through the turnstiles and as a result are cutting back on staffing or closing rides. As the price of gas increases, families that might have bought family passes to local amusement parks will rethink the trips to those parks and you will see a larger downturn. That is the tip of the iceberg and when that downturn comes, start looking at other leisure activities and leisure company performance. They are the true bellwether of the health of the economy. When people do not have disposable income, they do not take recreational trips. This is basic economics. Track the health of companies like REI, Coleman, Schwin, Rawlings, and other sports retailers and see what happens. They are the first ones to dip.

So, on the eve of Lent, I hope I have put you in a proper frame of mind. With the Dow closing down more than it closes up lately, the best advice is to pay down your debt, save your money and pitch a tent in the back yard. Oh, and you have less than 45 days before tax time.

Au chante!