Laissez les bons temps rouler!

Loosely translated, it means let the good times roll, and as this is Fat Tuesday (Mardi Gras) and the day before Lent starts (on the Christian calendar), I thought I would take a moment to look at the "good times" and make sure we are in the right frame of mind for Lent this year.

The "good times" have been limited to a very few things. Give me a minute and I will come up with something. In the meantime, let us revisit what has already been a turbulent 2008.

1) $3 Trillion Federal Budget. Well, this horse will beaten dead in the next few days but Congress is already saying it is DOA and they are already working up their version.

2) $150 Billion Stimulus package. By the time it gets finished, it will probably be close to $200 Billion. And the jury is still out on the actual effect it will have on the economy going forward. Even if the Congress passes it today, it will still be May before the $300 hits your mailbox and by May there will be other things to contend with (I am thinking that $3/gallon gas will be normal and we could be looking at $3.50 as the average). Further, if the Government gives back $150 Billion, that is $150 billion they don't have to spend on other programs that could do more to benefit the economy than returning money to individual people.

3) Credit Crunch. I am sure we are all feeling it, whether in mortgage prices or our own personal credit lines. America has been living on credit for so long, we have forgotten why it is bad to live that way. While one comedian has a great line about it "I have no children, no family, so basically, if I die in debt, I win!" most of us are not that lucky and between credit card interest rates that are close to usury and the continued depression in real wages when compared against inflation, the United States is in a bad way. Add too that the problems of an increasing federal deficit (at the rate of $1 Million/day) and you have a monetary problem looming on the horizon that even hording gold might not off-set.

4) The Ongoing Wars. The United States still has far too many soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan doing who knows what. The mission, which is costing somewhere in the vicinity of $275 Million per day and costing lives. Although the actual number killed in action is low (around 4,000, or about the same as a single month of fatal accidents, the long term costs are going to be in the medical and mental services required by the thousands of soldiers who will come back from these war zones and will have to reintegrate into society. Some will have no problem. Many will have (and are already having) problems. Of course, the costs of the war do not take into account small businesses that have failed because their sole proprietor or large parts of their staffs have been called up to serve, or families that have been ripped apart as one or both parents have had to go or return to the region. What is truly sad is that the dunderhead-in-chief of this mess still has not clearly defined the mission. They are not fighting for our rights. They are not fighting terrorism. In the first case, we have fewer rights here in the United States today than we did before September 11, 2001 and what is worse, we have given most of them up willingly and without any sort of a fight. In the latter case, you cannot kill an -ism and, in the case of terrorism, it is a guerrilla war which you would think by now the United States would have learned you cannot win with a conventional ground force.

5) Homeland (In)security. The travel industry is suffering. Between high fuel costs, increased delays and draconian yet ineffective security, air travel is suffering. Sure, people are traveling, but the discretionary money that might actually lead to profits are not there. Add to that the pressures of issuing a national ID card (RealID is nothing less), the costs that states will have to bear and the increased times for processing passports just so you can travel domestically and you will see a large number of people find some other mode or stay home all together.

6) Its the Economy Stupid. It does not take a rocket scientist to see the problems in the economy. Travel is one of them. Along with hotels, attractions are all reporting decreases in bodies through the turnstiles and as a result are cutting back on staffing or closing rides. As the price of gas increases, families that might have bought family passes to local amusement parks will rethink the trips to those parks and you will see a larger downturn. That is the tip of the iceberg and when that downturn comes, start looking at other leisure activities and leisure company performance. They are the true bellwether of the health of the economy. When people do not have disposable income, they do not take recreational trips. This is basic economics. Track the health of companies like REI, Coleman, Schwin, Rawlings, and other sports retailers and see what happens. They are the first ones to dip.

So, on the eve of Lent, I hope I have put you in a proper frame of mind. With the Dow closing down more than it closes up lately, the best advice is to pay down your debt, save your money and pitch a tent in the back yard. Oh, and you have less than 45 days before tax time.

Au chante!

Milk, bread and TP won't cut it.

Region Lacks Unified Evacuation Plan February 4, 2008 - 9:00am WASHINGTON - In the event of a catastrophe, officials have prepared evacuation plans for the Washington metro area. In fact, they've prepared lots of them. (WTOP)

Sadly, this only tells us what many in the region already knew. Sadly, none of us is truly ready for an emergency and the chaos that was Katrina will pale to insignificance should the National Capital Region ever have to deal with a real emergency.

$3.1 Trillion. Will that be cash or credit?

Bush Unveils $3.1 Trillion Spending Plan February 4, 2008 - 11:50am WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush unveiled a $3.1 trillion budget on Monday that supports sizable increases in military spending to fight the war on terrorism and protects his signature tax cuts. Bush says the plan will keep the U.S. economy growing and protect the U.S. militarily. (WTOP)

For those who have not been paying attention lately (either because they have been partying all week or because they are elected officials), today is budget Monday. And the dunderhead-in-chief has added another nail to his legacy coffin, which regrettably we will continue shoveling dirt onto long after he has been kicked out of the White House (someone is counting the silver right?).

$3.1 trillion dollars. The deficit is already growing at $1 million a day and the United States is pouring so much bad money after good into the rat holes that are Iraq and Afghanistan that one has to start wondering where President Bush is going to come up with another cent much less $3 trillion of my money (yours too, and your children's and your children's children's).

If you are wondering why the economy is in the toilet, let me spell it out using small words. It has nothing (and never has) to do with illegal immigrants. That is now and has been for a long time, a red herring. It has everything to do with the housing market, from top to bottom. It has nothing to do with our carbon footprint, but everything to do with the cost of that oil and other chemicals that are increasing it and our failure to create a new source of energy that does not cost as much. And sadly, it has a lot to do with some of the so-called alternatives (after all, the cost of corn has gone up so much because we are putting it in our tanks, that we cannot afford to feed it to the livestock that provides us with the various dairy and meat products we consume, so as a result the cost of food is increasing because of a double-whammie of factors).

It has a lot to do with the poor regulations we have put on financial institutions, urban planning decision, and an economy so driving by quarterly earnings that no company looks more than 90 days ahead anymore and plans for the future. The employees have become little more than cogs in the machine and as a result, most will find themselves working long past retirement age (what does that mean anymore?) because they cannot afford to retire, much less get sick or drive (commute) to work.

We are in a recession. 60% of Americans recognize the signs (none of them of course are in elected government, at least at the federal level) and they also recognize that giving money back is not the solution to the problem. Regrettably, the solution is going to be painful for many people. Jobs will go away and people will loose their houses and large chucks of their financial security because we have, for too long, relied on fictitious models of economic viability and the IOUs that have been issued by our elected leaders are coming due in the worst way.

The current budget is at the Office of Management and Budget, and when you finish reading that, here is a little gem from cartoonist Ed Stein that really will scare you. And if it does not do that, check back in a few days, I am going to pull out America the Broke and give you an idea of how bad it is. Oh, the book was published in 2004 when everything looked a lot brighter and cheerier.

Why do they get to choose?

Clinton, Romney on Offensive As Pivotal Contest Draws Near By Anne E. Kornblut and Shailagh Murray Washington Post Staff Writers Monday, January 7, 2008; Page A01 HAMPTON, N.H., Jan. 6 -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, slipping further behind her chief rival in the Democratic primary here, has taken direct control over her strategy and message as she scrambles to block the ascent of Sen. Barack Obama. (Washington Post)

Could someone please enlighten this poor, lost citizen, why a state with barely a million TOTAL people of voting age (US Census) is suddenly a pivotal state? Even when you add in Iowa, with a voting eligible population of 2 million (of which just slightly less than 10% participated in the vaunted caucuses), that is barely more than 0.1% of the total eligible US population.

So again, what gives? Yes, I understand the rational that if the "little guys" do not get their say so, they would be ignored in the entire process, but I am beginning to wonder if they do not have too much influence over the entire process.

The 2008 elections have been going on since the polls closed and the votes were counted on November 9, 2004. In all that time, the United States is going to select a Presidential candidate based on the opinions of LESS than the population of the Greater Washington Metro area? Neither state could be considered representative and while the primary in New Hampshire might actually be more scientific, statistically it is less important that April numbers are to Major League Baseball statistics. That is to say, nil. A blip on a VERY large chart, barely inside the margin of error, but the candidates are running as if it is the end of the world, and the media is not helping any.

New Hampshire and Iowa has a minimal impact on the Electoral College. Yet, by the time the votes are tallied and the Collage has ratified the results, both of these states will have had more influence than California, New York, Ohio and Florida combined. At some point, the citizens of the United States need to stand up and declare the system broken and begin to get it fixed, or we will continue to get the candidates we did not choose because by the time it got around to being "our turn" the choice had already been made for us.

Only in America

I work in a federal building a block from the White House in Washington, DC. Today we are in lockdown because the President himself is coming to do some official function or other, thus disrupting the normal workday (at least until sometime after lunch, or so we are told). I should also add that a large number of homeless people congregate outside this building. I am guessing it is because of its proximity to warm air coming up from the Metro system.

So, as I was leaving the building through the secondary entrance, I could not help but notice a female homeless person, urinating on the decorative plantings that surround the building. Somehow, it just all made sense.

Why do I need a passport, I was here first?

New travel rules leave Native Americans in limbo By Tim Gaynor Tue Dec 11, LUKEVILLE, Ariz (Reuters) - The U.S. border inspector at this lonely desert crossing with Mexico fingers the tribal enrollment card decorated with a wooden staff and eagle feathers, and glances at the holder's photograph.

Welcome to the United States. We do not care that you were here before the nation.

Am I the only one who finds it ironic that those citizens of North America, you know, the First Nations, the Inuit, those who were here long before the white man knew this piece of real estate existed are now subject to our rules, laws and procedures? The Bureau of Indian Affairs, and the equivalent Ministries in Canada and Mexico can very easily resolve this issue by recognizing the tribal rights of these citizens, issue them documents (or acknowledge the existing ones) and everyone can go about their merry way. But that would be too logical for the White Man.

A five-day workweek is too much?

Members: House is not a home By: Josephine Hearn and Patrick O'Connor Oct 11, 2007 05:58 AM EST Rank-and-file members of Congress are grumbling about the five-day workweek instituted this year by House Democratic leaders, complaining that it leaves little time for campaigning and allows few weekdays to deal with business back home. (Politico)

If the members of the House are looking for sympathy, then it is falling on deaf ears. Mine especially. The elected leaders of the United States were never expected to take up politics as a "real job." It was supposed to be a part-time, volunteer effort. Unfortunately, it has become, in many cases a full-time career for a number of people that are not qualified to do anything else and in some cases barely qualified to do the job they are in. And now they are belly aching that they have to put in a full day's work for a full day's pay?

These are people that I am paying to shuttle back and forth between their home and their office on a commuting schedule that is a consultant's dream. These are people that I am paying to staff and office, read and answer mail and respond to issues. In most corporations, where real money is required to get work done, there are CEOs without the staff or office space that these people have. And they are complaining? These are people that get to waste my money, extolling the virtues of what they have accomplished, when they are on vacation more than they are at work?

Sorry. No sympathy from those of us that work more than 40 hour weeks but only get paid for 40 and have a maximum two weeks of vacation. None whatsoever.

Fear Obesity before Terror

Two items crossed my desk this morning that deserve a moment of thought. The first is the battle between Congress and the White House over SCHIP (State Children's Health Insurance Program). I can understand the White House's reluctance to "increase" spending on anything. After all, there is not a lot of money left after their last request for Iraq spending, but in this case, the funds seem to be self-generating (as much as any can be) in the form of a sin tax on cigarettes. Of course, here in the United States, the idea of the sin tax is not as well documented as it is in Canada, but they are starting to catch on. Heck, I would be willing to pay an increased alcohol tax as well if it went to keeping children healthy.

It is the part about keeping children healthy that I am most in favor of. After all, a healthy child will eventually become a healthy adult and a healthy adult will not need as much in the way of medical coverage and costs. This is a key issue and one that is lost on a number of people (but not the drug or insurance industries). Bill Maher, on his HBO program the other night, commented on a Duke study that showed regular exercise and proper diet was as effective in battling depression as Paxil and Zoloft (two highly proscribed anti-depression drugs). Now, I am not belittling depression in and of itself, even though I have a note pad that says something to the effect of "Prozac? Haven't they ever heard of a martini?" I am sure there are some forms of depression that can only be treated medically, but I have to wonder how many of those people currently taking depression medications really need them.

This is a similar argument about ADD and other childhood "diseases" that practically did not exist even a dozen years ago. The reasons for this are pretty easy to document. First, children, generally, received routine, in depth physicals and the doctors that saw them knew their patients. Secondly, the children got a lot more exercise than they do today. Even elementary school students today are coddled to the extent that you would think they were made of fine china. Yet their parents grew up in a age where bicycles were ridden without helmets, playground equipment was often mounted over asphalt and dodge ball, tag and other "socially demeaning" games were routine. Yet we now feel we need to put our children in protective gear to be bused across the street where they are supposed to wait quietly in rows, inside, for school to start. And when was the last time you saw six kids playing a pick up game of any sort? Certainly not in most communities where you need a permit from the jurisdiction to even be on the fields.

We are doing ourselves and the next generation a disservice. We are over medicating, under exercising and generally coddling away any self-esteem or desire to succeed in these kids. Further, we are showing them that, as adults, reacting to irrational fears is perfectly acceptable behavior.

Which brings me to my next point. Tom Toles, the OpEd cartoonist for the Washington Post, had this cartoon in his corner yesterday. At what point are we, the voter, going to actually stop being afraid of our shadow and the shadow of September 11 and get on with our life? In a number of posts around the Internet, those of us that hold the view that being afraid is no way to live are shouted down by the lame argument that "you wouldn't say that if you lost a loved one." Well, frankly, yes, I would. And I tell you this because I have a very pragmatic outlook on life. If it is your time, then there is not a thing you can do about it. This is not to say I do not take the necessary precautions. I lock my doors, I drive defensively and I avoid dark places at night when I am alone. But I have also walked at night in New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris and a dozen other cities and not felt the least bit scared.

If terrorists want to blow up a building, they will find a way to do it. Ironically, terrorism is all about terror (go figure) and the more press they get about the plots they do not execute, the more effective the campaign is. But I really am not about to surrender my liberties and freedoms just to prevent them from blowing up a building or bringing down an airliner. As Americans, we seem to be able to do a pretty good job of that ourselves just through general neglect, yet that does not generate the same degree of fear that a guy with explosives in his shoe does (which would do little more than punch a hole in the plane and force a rapid decent by the way). In some ways, I could almost support the argument of every person carries a gun onto the plane. Almost. I would be more worried about the drunk in 8D shooting me than I am about some nut job hijacking us to Cuba, or Aruba or the White House lawn.

I am not immortal or invulnerable. However, I am not afraid of my shadow or of the boogie man, whoever he might be. When my ticket is punched, that is it, game over. As the comic once said, if I die in debt, I win!

What could you do with $600 Billion

West Virginia Senator, Robert Byrd, who has been in the Senate through Vietnam, Gulf War I, and this current debacle, was outraged, and rightly so, but seemingly to be the only one, at the cost, after this latest round of funding requests. He simply repeated the number $600 billion.

That is what the United States government has spent on the war in Iraq. And the question still remains, where are the tangible returns on investments? I have already outlined what the most recent requests are for, so I thought I would come at it a different way and try and illustrate what $600 billion dollars would get the United States.

First, to put this in perspective, $600 billion (600,000,000,000) if it were your country's Gross Domestic Product, would put you at number 17 in the world.

For $600 billion, you could fund the Department of Homeland (In)security for 12 years ($48 b/yr) or the Department of Defense for a year and a bit ($400 b/yr).

For $600 billion, you could fund every local jurisdictions request for an interoperable radio systems and actually make it work.

For $600 billion, you could rebuild a large number of schools that are beyond their useful life span and give the teachers a raise.

For $600 billion, you could put a dint in the issue of a new source of energy.

For $600 billion, you could make large strides to repairing and replacing infrastructure (such as bridges and roads and the electrical grid).

For $600 billion you could clean up polluted rivers, streams and lakes.

For $600 billion, you could actually come up with a national security plan that preserved the rights and liberties documented in the Constitution while actually affording the nation some real security.

The limit is only your imagination, yet the government, with no real outcry from the people, continues this fruitless and pointless war. The nation is beyond bankrupt. I just hope that her citizens wake up and realize this before it is too late.

On Net Neutrality - Verizon Steps In It.

Verizon reverses decision to block text messages BY Grant Gross September 27, 2007 (IDG News Service) -- Verizon Wireless Inc. has reversed a decision to block text messages on its network from abortion rights group Naral Pro-Choice America after an outcry from Net neutrality advocates and others. (ComputerWorld)

Now, I would think, by 2007, that the issue of net neutrality was pretty much a foregone conclusion. If you do not have neutrality, you cannot effectively have an Internet. It simply will not work otherwise. But clearly, the telcos, who cannot think from quarter to quarter, much less outside the box, still do not seem to get it and they are joined in their duplicity by the very federal agency that is supposed to be looking out for the citizen. Regrettably, it seems there is still a fight to be had.

Now, do not mistake me. I think that email and other services have been hijacked by spammers and all other unsavory characters to their own ends, making it harder and harder for legitimate users to really take advantage of the technology. What is especially bad about this whole case is that we are not talking about blanket SMS messages to just anyone, but targeted messages to people who have signed up for the service! That, to me, is not spam, regardless of how many people the message is going to. And in the case of SMS messages, unlike general email, Verizon would get their proverbial pound of flesh in the form of fees from receipt of message. So everyone wins. Of course, the suits at Verizon probably were facing a lawsuit over this and some sharp tech was talking to a marketing rep and said, why face a suit when we will make money and oh, by the way, here is another revenue stream (so look for this coming soon to a system near you).

The telcos can bitch all they want about freeloaders on their lines. The fact, as proven in other parts of the world, is that when you open the system, you get more opportunities and more opportunities means more money. You just have to spend a little more time thinking about how you are going to recognize the revenue, because the old rules do not apply any more.

September 11 - Are We More At Risk Today?

Today is September 11, 2007.

In 2001, I reported to work. It was not a normal day. I had my infant daughter in my arms and we were scheduled to perform a series of network tests. Otherwise, I would have been at home on my couch. When I arrived at the office, the first plane had hit the towers, but I was unaware of this because I had been listening to silly songs rather than the news. The IT team was glued to the web feed. The CIO was not amused about it and wanted us to get back to work. I was not sure what all the excitement was about either having just come in the door, but I was looking out the window from the sixth floor and could see what I later learned was the smoke from the Pentagon on the horizon. By lunch time, I was in my driveway with multiple radios. the county having lost phone service, my daughter playing in the grass under the tree. Four days later, I was down at the Pentagon, ready to lend my aid. Ironically, it was determined that my presence at a management seminar was a more important use of my time. This was not a determination I made, but was made for me by my employer. This was, perhaps, the first indication to me just how little the attacks truly meant to the county and explains why the nation as a whole, even today is not ready for another incident, but I will discuss that in a moment.

In August 2002, I went to Seattle, Washington to attend a friends wedding. While most of the East Coast was still talking about the events of the previous year, it was not even a topic of conversation in Seattle. What was ironic is most people associated Washington, DC with the Cherry Blossoms, not an airplane hitting the Pentagon. It was almost as if they did not even know that the Pentagon was near Washington, DC.

Today, six years later, the nation seems to have gone from a state of readiness to a state of laissez faire, more interested in what their government is prepared to do for them than the state of their own plans. And, sadly, the state of the government's plans is more interested in preventing things, in the name of security than they are about working towards effective preparation. It reminds me a lot of the sage wisdom in Frank Herbert's Dune. The United States has become very much like House Harkonnen while Al-Qaeda is following the path of House Atreides and their Fremen allies. When the Harkonnen go to ground, Paul Maud'Dib and Gurney Halleck are talking about the events.



Says Gurney "They say they've fortified the graben villages to the point where you [Paul] cannot harm them. They say they need only sit inside their defenses while you wear yourself out in futile attack."

"In a word," Paul said, "they're immobilized."

"While you can go where you will," Gurney said.

"It's a tactic I learned from you," Paul said. "They've lost the initiative, which means they've lost the war." (pg. 415)



While I am not saying that the United States has lost the war, it certainly has adopted a bunker mentality that seems to be more focused on preventing than it is on being prepared for it to happen again, which is most assuredly will.

In Sunday's Washington Post, in the Opinion section, Messrs. Keen and Hamilton, the Chairs of the 9/11 Commission Report asked the question "Are we safer today?" Their answer, which I happen to agree with, is no, but I think a better question is "Are we more at risk today?" This is less clear cut.

Clearly, many of the issues addressed in the 9/11 Commission report are still issues that need to be resolved. There are still a large core of young, predominantly male, Muslims that have no job, and no hope of betterment in the near future. This is further compounded by the power vacuum created by the United States invasions of both Afghanistan and Iraq and a failure, as pointed out by Michael Scheuer, of the intelligence community to check the checkables. The United States has invested large amounts of money into questionable policies and procedures that, while on the surface look like positive steps, begin to show cracks and serious failings as you dig deeper.

As an example, let us take air travel. For obvious reasons, this was one of the first targets for "improvement" following the events of September 11. The problem, and a question that still to my mind has not been answered satisfactorily, is how did the hijackers get into the cockpits in the first place? Remember that following the CIA shootings in Washington in the early 1990's the FAA ordered all cockpit doors to be secured at all times. This, to me raises some very serious questions about how seriously the current regulations are being taken if previous directives were ignored. Further, while the traveling public is all but stripped searched (and with the new back scatter devices being installed in select airports, you might as well be naked) before being allowed on an airplane, the cargo being loaded into the belly of the very same plane is barely looked at, besides making sure it is actually getting on the right aircraft. For those of you who follow this stuff, I am sure you are jumping up and down to point out my error. Sorry, but I am one step ahead of you. In August, what was HR-1 became Public Law 110-53 and ordered the screening of all cargo. As of today, that is not happening and under current TSA guidelines, most of that "checking" will be done by the air cargo carriers with random "enforcement" checks by TSA rather than formal TSA procedures. If you think for one minute this is an improvement over the current set of procedures, I have a genuine piece of the Pentagon to sell you. And it will be years, if not decades before the United States is capable of examining every rail, road and ship borne cargo brought into the United States.

On the home front, the Department of Homeland (In)security started several programs to enhance safety. These include the Ready program, RealID, National Incident Management System (NIMS), and HSPD-12. With the exception of NIMS, these programs are close to being outright failures.

The Ready Program is a great idea. While I think it tends to focus too much on terrorism rather than being an all-hazards approach (after all, why should we worry about bird flu and bio-terrorism. Treat them as a hazard and mitigate the risks). The problem is that in the years since September 11, like my friends in Seattle, the memory has faded and most people are less prepared today than they were prior to September 11. Further, more are looking to the government to be prepared for them rather than taking the responsibility themselves. Yes, this is a problem because when the next incident occurs, whether it is domestic, foreign, weather or illness, the country will again be wringing its hands and asking what more could we have done when the answer has been spelled out clearly and repeatedly.

I have documented numerous times the problems with RealID. From the costs, to the inability for most citizens to qualify for the documentation, RealID is nothing less than a National ID card, and frankly, the United States already has too many forms of identification for too many purposes, some of which are crossed. Until there are real discussions about the privacy of this information and who is going to bear the costs of the program, RealID is dead on arrival.

Along the lines of RealID, is the HSPD-12 initiative. There are dozens of little things in HSPD-12, but the major focus is the attempted establishment of a single, federal ID card. Like all things in the United States, single is a word that is a difficult concept to grasp. The goal may be to archive a single ID card, but at the moment there are no less than three competing standards for what the card will encompass. To add insult to injury, the costs for moving to this single card systems are borne by each agency out of their operating budgets (as compared to separate and distinct appropriation) which must compete with a forced move to IPv6, data center relocations and other routine issues that every agency deals with. Without a single, enforced standard, the mandates of HSPD-12 are doomed to failure.

The National Incident Management System (NIMS) has a lot of good qualities. It attempts to establish a single model for incident response, a unified plan and a process for interagency cooperation. Many parts of the program are good and it is nice to see that many agencies are beginning to adopt the core concepts. That being said, there are large sections of NIMS that are "to be decided," or worse, can never be decided because of the sheer size of the implementation project. A single (there's that word again) data network for passing information just is not realistic (I would argue that several already exist, why re-engineer, but that is just me), especially when each jurisdiction has to buy its own gear and train its own people. Interoperations in communications have come a long way but there are still monumental hurdles to overcome, least of which is cooperation between the various first responder agencies and their local, state and federal counterparts. When it comes to human interaction, there is not much you can legislate, as much as you would like to.

The other piece of NIMS that has a long way to go is the National Response Plan (NRP). There seems to be a disconnect between the writers of the NRP and the writers of NIMS. A disconnect that I understand is being rectified, but will take some time. As we saw with the response to Katrina, the NRP is so new, that even the federal government did not follow it, which of course, begs the question, why should I follow it when the federal government does not? This will bear further examination as the next revision of the NRP is released.

I asked earlier if we were anymore at risk? Frankly, I do not believe the United States is any more at risk from a terrorist attack than it was prior to September 11. What I do believe is that the risk of damage from such an attack is significantly higher and that the ability to execute an attack is significantly higher. Man, as an animal, does not like restrictions generally. Ask any security expert who has thought about it and you will discover that the more stringing the security measures, the more man will try to work around them. While this is particularly true in computer security, we are beginning to see it as an issue in immigration, transportation and economics. This becomes even more critical when you consider the patchwork of enforcement or just following the policy. Again, as any air traveler will tell you, TSA enforcement is haphazard. In some airports you have remove your shoes and belt, take your electronics out and submit to a cavity search. In other airports, you can walk through with nary a glance at the magnetometer. It is this sort of enforcement that really makes most of us upset rather than the requirement for enforcement to begin with. As a result, in the words of Michael Scheuer:



"This dire lack of discernment - few senior bureaucrats will discount a threat if there is a one-in-a-billion chance it might occur and cost a promotion - results in a massive misapplication of manpower, computer time, and national-level intelligence collection systems against a mass of threats, most of which are palpably absurd. As a result, like a fire department plagued by false alarms, analysts, spies, equipment and police at all levels are worn out chasing nonextant threats. In doing so, moreover, an atmosphere is created where the constant crying of wolf dulls our analytic edge and increases the risk of the career-ruining oversight senior bureaucrats fear." (pg. 85).



Finally, there is the "sense of national grief" that seems to pervade the whole incident and has gotten progressively worse as time goes on. Yes, some people died. But the people that died on September 11 were a minority. To put it in perspective, if you assume 2000 people died, that would still be less than then number of people who died on the road in the United States in one month! So far, only one other person seems to get the irony, and that is OpEd cartoonist Jeff Stahler who's rather poignant piece appears today. So if we are going to grieve as a nation, perhaps we need to be looking a different statistic. Further, as pointed out in the 9/11 report, some 600 of those who died did not have to because they violated their own procedures and self-deployed without proper gear or following safety protocols.

Is the United States safer? No, absolutely not. Is the United States more at risk? From another attack? No I would argue that the United States is at no more risk than it was prior to September 11, 2001, but the United States is certainly at more risk for damage and death from an attack when it next occurs. Whether it is from Al-Qaeda, the Illinois Nazis, or Mother Nature. So go and get prepared. It is not up to the government. It is up to you.

DOJ and Net Neutrality. You were expcting something positive?

Net neutrality: "not normal" Grant Gross reports:

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) should resist calls to impose net neutrality regulations on broadband providers because such rules could hurt the Internet, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) said Thursday ... [it] said net neutrality rules could "inefficiently skew investment, delay innovation, and diminish consumer welfare." Rules that would prohibit broadband providers from giving priority to their own Internet traffic and prohibit them from blocking or slowing competitors' traffic could also prevent providers from charging fees for priority service ... [and] could, in turn, cause fees to increase to all broadband users ... [and] could also discourage broadband providers from investing in new, high-speed services and keep providers from managing their networks efficiently. (ComputerWorld)

At the risk of getting kicked off the net, this is bullshit. Pure and simple. The FCC has been in the hip pocket of the ISPs and telcos for the bulk of this administration and some of the previous one. How else can you explain some their decisions to support HDTV, Broadband over Powerline and other technologies that bring little or nothing (or are outright detrimental) to the end user but provide windfall profits for companies that do not have to upgrade systems or provide anything resembling services to their customer base, who is paying for the services.

Now, the Department of Justice says go ahead and write more rules that will inhibit technology growth and deployment (Google, Vonage, take note, the FCC and the DOJ are directing this right at your forehead) of slick solutions that would make doing things much easer. Instead, they are going to enable Verizon and Cox and Time-Warner to contiue to degrade service for third party applications, that probably work better then the crap they are trying to shovel, while continuing to jack up the price for their own applications (VoIP is the current one that jumps to mind) and pushing off technology upgrades as long as possible.

I read an article in just the last few days that looked at broadband speed and saturation levels in the world. Want to guess where the United States came in that study? Remember, the Internet was invented here. If you said anywhere but the bottom, go back up and read the DOJ's opinion again. Japan is leading the way with almost Gigabit to the desktop. Why? Several reasons. First, no surprise, they have an advantage because of density and a need to rebuild their phone network following World War II that the United States never had to face, but almost more importantly, the Japanese government forced, by law, the telcos to open their gateways to "upstarts." The end result is more competition, more bandwidth, cheaper prices and more services. Even Canada, which has vast wastelands of empty space has more bandwidth and more adoption than the United States (although not by much).

So, the next time you are wondering why that video on demand service so slow and there has to be a better way to do it, or you read about this really cool technology but it only works on "their" network, remember to thank the Department of Justice the FCC and your local telco and cable provider. They are there to help you...fail.

What's with the politicians?

Craig reconsidering decision to resign By JOHN MILLER, Associated Press Writer BOISE, Idaho - Sen. Larry Craig says he may still fight for his Senate seat, a spokesman says — if the lawmaker can clear his name with the Senate Ethics Committee and a Minnesota court where he pleaded guilty after his arrest in an airport men's room sex sting. (Yahoo News)

This guy is starting to become somewhat of a joke, even within his own twisted party. Most of us have watched enough police dramas in our life to know that if you do not understand something, you ask for an expert and when you do not understand what the police are telling you, you ask for a lawyer. When you are a member of Congress, you should be doing that right out of the gate.

I do not care if he is gay or not. Really, I do not. His sexual orientation is not the issue. What is at issue is his arrest and subsequent guilty plea. While it is too much to hope that a member of the Congress might actually stay on the right side of the law, this is not a parking ticket or DUI. Further, this is a member who claims to be an upstanding moral individual. If it was a case of disorderly conduct where, perhaps he was overly loud in a setting where he was disturbing people, that would be one thing, but it is not.

At this point, the smart thing for him to do is to resign, let the process run and then try and convince the voters that he should be reelected. And while he and the rest of the politicians out there are about it, perhaps a little less high and mighty and a little more humility and a desire to actually serve the people might stand them in better stead.

And So It Begins

Bush to outline aid to mortgage holders By DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON - Offering federal help for strapped mortgage holders, President Bush is proposing to aid hundreds of thousands of borrowers hard hit by the housing slump. (Yahoo News)

And so begins the great bail-out of 2007. Rather than proper and efficient standards (or perhaps ethics and morals on the part of the lenders) up front to prevent this from happening in the first place, the government is going to have to step in and bail out literally millions of people at a cost yet to be determined at a time when the Federal Government is already over extended for monetary resources. It just seems so petty to say I told you so, but can someone explain why are the taxpayers stuck holding the bag for this one too?

You're Fired. No I'm Not.

Rhee Seeks Authority to Terminate Employees: Planned Legislation Is Aimed at Reorganizing the D.C. School System's Central Command By David Nakamura Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, August 29, 2007; Page A01 D.C. Schools Chancellor Michelle A. Rhee is preparing plans to fire up to several hundred employees over the coming year, part of a major restructuring of the school system's central office aimed at streamlining operations, District government sources said. (WashingtonPost)

This is only the latest in articles about the power of unions, the screwy rules related to hiring and firing in the government, both at the District level as well as the Federal level and the realities of the commercial world.

First, let me start by saying that, in general, I feel unions have long outlived their usefulness and it is articles like this that really drive that point home. Further, let me say that I understand why the federal regulations about hiring, firing and promotion exist, but that they too are archaic and can only lead to more and more federal bloat, wastefulness and eventually the disillusionment most people feel when dealing with federal agencies. Finally, I am and have been a government contractor and while I am not always happy with the way things work, there is also not a whole lot I can do and I do get a paycheque for doing my job. So, with all that up front, let us look at this from the article:

...Rhee has begun drafting legislation that would ask the D.C. Council to suspend personnel laws so that the chancellor would have the authority to terminate employees without having to reassign them to other jobs...she wants to bring in new upper-level managers and downsize the central administration by as much as 30 to 40 percent.

Typically, central office employees who are removed from a position have the contractual right to be placed in a lower-ranking position in the system while maintaining their salary. These rights have hampered superintendents who have sought in the past to downsize the school administration and remove poorly performing employees.

This is not the first time someone has attempted to clean house, either at the DC School Board or in the Federal Government. The Department of Homeland (In)security, when it was formed, tried to get Congress to allow it to move to a pay for performance basis system. This move was blocked at every turn by the various labor unions that represent hundreds of thousands of workers. One worker was quoted as saying something to the effect of "what would I do if every day I went to work not knowing if it was my last?"

Right about now, your blood should be boiling, especially if you are, or have been the victim of a reduction in forces, or laid-off or had your job outsourced. For the majority of workers in the United States today, going to work and no knowing that you will have a job the following day is the status quo. It is normal, and expected and if you are not in that category, you are living on a cloud. Further, we know that we have to perform to a certain level or we will not be paid or receive and increase in our pay. That is what pay for performance is all about and why it is so critical that the government be able to do it. How many federal employees would not have a job today if they had to justify their existence? As any contractor will tell you there are some good people working in federal service today, but there are also a lot of people that would not have a job otherwise and are incapable of doing the job they have now. In the private sector, these "poor performers" would be show the door. In the federal sector, they are promoted, traded, pawned off, but still draw a paycheque from our tax dollars.

There are those that wonder why the federal government is so big and spends so much money. One is because it has so many people on its payroll that if it were a business would not be there. Two, it has to hire contractors and pay street wages, instead of the grossly deflated GS wages to get projects done that its own people are incapable of. Three, it is very hard to get most agencies to make logical business decisions about equipment, staffing and budgets. The reasons are varied, but come down to the underlying fundamental issues related to the federal employment methodology that "anyone who is a manager can manage any department and does not need specialized knowledge in that group." As a result, the people making technical decisions may not have the first clue about what needs to go into a good technical decision. Similarly, the people making HR decisions may not have any idea about how Human Resources really should work. This is a sad way to run a nation.

Ms. Rhee is doing what any manager, hired to turn an organization around, would be expected to do. Come in, get rid of the dead wood and move the organization forward and she should be given the power and authority to do so. Now if only we could do the same thing at the federal level.

More OpEd Skewering

There are two OpEd cartoons this morning that just epitomize the current state of affairs in the United States today. First, this one from Jerry Holbert who nicely picks up what a lot of people know: that is, more money is being spent in Iraq than is being spent in the United States on infrastructure.

The second, from Wiley slams home a point that seems to be made every year about this time in the federal government. After all, have you ever heard of a failed pilot? If you wonder what I mean, just go and look at the Department of Defense's missile defense shield. How many chances does bad technology get before someone cancels the program?

Infrastructure Collapse - What Cost?

While the failure of the bridge in Minnesota last week is not funny per se, the OpEd Cartoonists, more so than the general public are getting the implications and having a field day with it. Mike Luckovich had this one on Saturday, which should become a classic along with Rob Rogers . And Tony Auth put this one out on Friday.

The United States is fighting a war of attrition. In a posting somewhere else, someone pointed out to me that the utilities are run by private companies in the US (this after I posted something about the manholes in New York not being terrorist related as anyone who has lived in DC for more than a month can tell you. We went through several years of exploding manholes here before Pepco (the power company) was forced to do something about it). While I am aware that the utilities are private, there is supposed to be oversight of their operation by the government. Part of that oversight should include the general safe operations and health of the infrastructure. Regrettably, as we are beginning to learn, this oversight has been neglected for far too long and it is beginning to become a painful cost.

How painful? Bridge inspection costs are expected to exceed most State transportation agency budgets for this year. That means that things like fixing the flaws will have to come out of the next budget round. And we have not even had snow yet this year. Underground maintenance is almost impossible for most cities to manage with roads so congested that it is almost impossible to close to do the required work.

At the heart of all of this however, is the almighty dollar. Americans bitch about being taxed, yet they demand that their roads are not filled with potholes, that their bridges are sound and stable and that they get power and water when they flip the switch or flush the toilets. They expect the Government to rebuild their city, neighbourhood, house when a storm levels it, even though they insist on building on land that is unstable, prone to flooding or below sea level.

The infrastructure in the United States is crumbling and has been crumbling for decades. Meanwhile, money is flowing out of the United States in the form of foreign aid, military spending and other forms of empire building and it has to stop. Or the black out in the Northeast, exploding manholes and failing bridges will be the norm, rather than the tragic exception.

Can the Deterioration Be Stopped?

Death Toll Dips to 4 in Bridge Collapse August 2, 2007 - 8:16am By JON KRAWCZYNSKI Associated Press Writers MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Authorities lowered the death toll from an interstate bridge collapse to four Thursday, but warned the final number could change as divers search the Mississippi River. (WTOP)

A little good news from what is clearly a horrific event. And shame on Fox News for rushing in the press release from the Department of Homeland (In)security, clearly stating that this was not a terrorist incident. Of course it was not an act of terrorism. That should have been clear from the way the way the bridge came to rest.

Now, with all that being said, it should be a wake up call. As I have said before, a number of times, the infrastructure in the United States is crumbling to dust.

• The power grid is in danger of overload for more months out of the year than not.
  
  
• Water and sewer pipes under the nation's cities are rusted, rotted and decayed and just waiting to break, freeze or explode, costing even more money to band aid and keep them functioning.
  
  
• The road network is just barely hanging together, most of the key pieces being more than 20 years old, unmaintained or not maintained at the level that they should be and most not even designed for the volumes of automobiles, SUVs and trucks that pass over they every single day.
  

Visual inspections are not enough any more. I am sure we will discover that there was some intrinsic flaw in the material that caused it to collapse, something that could not be predicted. What concerns me is that the flaw is probably evident in other structures and it is only a matter of time before a bridge over a more significant drop results in more than just a handful of deaths.

What I really want to know is when is the United States going to start investing in itself again? Answer that question before it becomes to late to make the decision.

Illegal Immigration is Complicated

US businesses fear illegal foreign worker crackdown by J.D. Riviere Thu Jul 26, 3:58 AM ET AUSTIN, United States (AFP) - US businesses are bracing for a possible major crackdown on illegal foreign workers, as the government seeks to give immigration authorities more power to punish companies hiring undocumented workers. (Yahoo News)

There is a segment of the population in the United States that is just delirious to hear that there could be a crack down on illegal immigrants. These are the same saints that have never broken the law or been forced to do whatever was needed for their family's well being. These are the same individuals that have money to burn and feel the government is taxing them too heavily and too often. I would call these people deluded, but I think even the residents of Oz would find them too far "out there" to be considered normal.

When businesses begin to feel threatened, especially when the markets are at such stratospheric levels and unemployment is so low, yet oil is close to a record high and defaults in the mortgage market seem to be looming like a repeat of the Savings and Loan scandal of the late 1980s, it is time to really take a look at the realities.

1) The population, illegal or otherwise, fill a needed niche in the economic structure from a labor perspective. Further, it is unlikely that the jobs they occupy could be filled by the average American today, either because of the low wage or more importantly the lack of skill set.

2) The population has become increasingly integrated into the economic fabric of society, with everything from cell phones to cable TV contracts. Defaulting on those contracts could cause more of an economic problem than the perceived burden burden placed on the society they live in.

3) Rounding them up and deporting them is an expensive and unrealistic option.

4) When the fines begin against businesses, those costs will be passed onto the consumer, in the forms of higher prices for goods or worse, the loss of jobs if the company is forced to close. Some would argue that this is not a significant issue, but the reality is that every business is tied to the economy and there are a few that are just barely hanging on. That would increase defaults in a shaky banking industry, but it would also displace workers and leave companies that depend on the labor (office buildings, construction sites to be stereotypical) without the labor to get things done, delaying or risking ongoing projects etc. like a string of dominoes.

I get that they are here illegally. As someone who has gone through the byzantine process of naturalizing, I get that. I also get that they are as integrated into our society as any other economic element and you do not just pull a thread out of a tapestry without knowing what it is connected to. The results could be catastrophic

Label Definition: FUD

FUD: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) is a sales or marketing strategy of disseminating negative (and vague) information on a competitor's product. The term originated to describe disinformation tactics in the computer hardware industry and has since been used more broadly. FUD is a manifestation of the appeal to fear. (Wikipedia)

This term has been around a long time, but not since September 11, 2001, has the United States been gripped by it at almost every level of society from the most basic (we are all going to be blown up in our beds if we do not catch the bad guys!) to the most ridiculous (Iraq has weapons of mass destruction and they are selling them to grandmothers in Iowa - that was the pitch to invade Iraq wasn't?).

President George W. Bush, who will go down as the worst President the United States has ever seen, uses FUD on a daily basis to distract and obfusticate the illegal actions his administration continues to execute. Whether it is in speeches he makes or are made on his behalf, never before has there been so much, sprinkled before so many and consumed with such zeal as there is right now.

Remember, the only thing you have to fear, is fear itself. Way back, Frank Herbert wrote this about fear in the book Dune:

I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.