Preparation. Drill vs. Real Life

On my morning commute, I make a habit of looking around and trying to identify those things that, in an emergency I might need to take note of. Beyond the simple question of "where are the emergency exits and where are the emergency tools" I try to play a what if game and look for the obvious and not so obvious places where trouble could occur. For example, my train crosses a series of bridges, some more than forty feet in the air. A well placed explosive could have catastrophic effects. (As a side note, it does not take a genius to figure out where the obvious places are to cripple or do serious damage to the infrastructure in and around the Metro DC area. A good street map, available a the local 7-11 and Google is about all you need, so if you think that this blog is giving the bad guys ideas you need to get out more. If they have not thought of any of this yet, it is only because they are thinking of other more nefarious things.). In fact, a little over a year ago, a truck collided with one of the bridges and almost shut it down. This would have caused chaos, despite the fact that no lives were lost.

However, there are also several level crossings that could equally be utilized as well as rail maintenance access points, most of which are unlocked and appear to be unguarded. There might be a camera near by, but by the time someone notices the bad guys park a truck for example, it could be too late.

Further, I also take the Metro (subway) in my commute and as a long time resident, it does not take much of an imagination to figure out where you can shut down the rail line and cause a whole mess of trouble. Tokyo's sarin gas incident is only one of a dozen ways to cause terror.

So, with those thoughts in mind, Secretary Chertoff's gut and recent reports about an possible increase in a threat of terrorism (is that anything like the hurricane season predictions?), I wondered if over at the Department of Homeland (In)security they were discussing any drills. Now I am all in favor of a good drill, especially the type that really tests the systems. Could you imagine this conversation:

Sec: We need to have a drill.

Flunky 1: All right sir, what sort of drill?

Sec: How about...terrorist blows up Metro under Potomac River?

Expert 1: And how much confusion and realism do you want sir?

Sec: Hmm...how much can I have?

Expert 2: Well, sir, I guess it depends on how much you want to inconvenience people and how much you want to stress the systems. I suppose you could have full realism by not announcing it. Or you could announce it and have equipment pre-staged. Or you could work it out on a black board.

The problem with all exercises, is there is always some artificiality that has to be introduced. After all, you really can not blow up a train under the Potomac (or even simulate that) during rush hour without inconveniencing thousands of people. Yet the question remains, why not? Are we as a population not more prepared if we are inconvenienced by a disruption in our normal course of affairs? What if, each year, regions had a full scale exercise that just knocked the population off its axis for a day. Companies would be allowed to claim a tax credit for the day so people would be paid. Governments and other agencies would be able to practice in REAL situation (like normal events occurring as well as the drill itself). And the population would be better prepared. Think of it as a fire drill for grown ups.

Of course, it would never happen. And because it will never happen, the United States, as a nation, will continue to be unprepared.